All cars hybrid by 2020 ?

According to a study carried out by IBM’s Institute for Business Value – Automotive 2020: Clarity Beyond the Chaos – and quoted by EcoGeek, all cars may be hybrid by 2020.

This is reinforced by the fact that Toyota, the leading car maker and producer of the global success Prius (pictured left), has previously stated that all its models will be hybrid by this date.

But this study also forecasts several major changes such as decreasing carbon dioxide emissions per unit and the increased use of biofuels.

Here is the full article from EcoGeek :

IBM’s Institute for Business Value has interviewed 125 anonymous car industry executives from 15 countries and has come to the conclusion, among several conclusions, that by 2020, all new cars will be hybrids.

The report, Automotive 2020: Clarity Beyond the Chaos, underlines insiders’ views that the auto industry is making some rapid, fundamental changes and hybrids are included in that change.

The report also highlights the growth in cellulosic ethanol, that average CO2 emissions for vehicles will dip to 97 g/km (lower than the Prius), and that hydrogen, despite all the crowing of advocates, will decidedly not be a major player in 2020.

Can we believe it? Every new car a hybrid? In 12 years? Well, looking at the rate we’re going on improving hybrid cars, and looking at the fluster surrounding the oil industry, the flagging economy, the growing awareness of climate change, as well as green trendiness, among consumers…yes, I have to say it is a distinct possibility.

Twelve years is a long time in car years. Battery technology is improving, biofuel technology is growing, and consumers’ mindsets are shifting. So, yep, I have to say I definitely am willing to entertain the notion.

I think it’ll take a whole lot longer than 12 years to get all the gas-powered cars, trucks, and SUVs off the roads; but as for new cars on the lots, I’m optimistic they’ll all be hybrids of one form or another.

The whole report is well worth a solid read-through, but you can skip to page 8 for the specific info about hybrid production.

For more on the report, please check the official page.

I think all this seem pretty neet. Except the part on biofuels. For the reasons I outlined previously, biofuels aren’t a good solution. Indeed Germany stopped supporting them.

Final point. We may have the best technology available, if we continue to rely as heavily on cars and personal transportation solutions as we do it currently, this won’t be any good. Trains and other alternatives have to be developed and used increasingly.

To conclude this article, I will exemplify my views with my personal experience : by taking the train instead of the car I avoided the emissions of 900 kilograms of carbon dioxide since the beginning of the year. (800 kilograms + 100 more since the last article as I went to Paris for business purposes )

So yes, cars with improved mileage, hybrids and so on are great, but we still need to use them less if we want to solve the energy / environment equation.

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