Oil production peaked in non-OPEC countries 3


oil_well.jpgI was wondering in May 2008 if oil production already peaked. The Oil Drum brings us more data on peak oil as to their latest article non-OPEC countries’ oil production peaked in 2004.

Indeed, Russia – the world’s second oil producer – saw its production peaked in 2008 and is due to decrease by 8 percent by 2013. Many other countries like Mexico, the United Kingdom peaked recently.

This is a critical question for our economies as oil accounts for nearly a third of the global energy mix. It’s high time we prepare our world for the post-oil era.To the Oil Drum:

Non OPEC-12 oil production peaked in 2004 at 46.8 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2004 but decreases to 42.1 mbd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining non OPEC-12 oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.

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(…) While the IEA warned in July of last year that non OPEC-13 total liquids could peak in 2010, it now appears that non OPEC-12 total liquids peaked in 2007. Total liquids production in 2008 was slightly lower than 2007 due to Gulf of Mexico hurricanes and production outages in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

(…) There is recent increasing concern about non OPEC peaking in 2007. In February 2009, Merril Lynch stated that non OPEC total liquids production may have already peaked in 2007. Colin Campbell’s January 2009 newsletter is forecasting that non OPEC production has passed peak in 2007, excluding bio-fuels.

Halliburton also believes that non OPEC production may have peaked in 2007 as indicated by a statement from their Q4 2008 earnings call transcript: “Non-OPEC production fell in 2008 and is likely to decline in 2009. Russia, which accounted for the majority of the increase in non-OPEC production in the past decade contracted in 2008 and will likely do so again in 2009.”

The forecast below shows a non OPEC total liquids peak of 50 mbd in 2007 which exceeded 2004 total liquids due mainly to exponential growth in bio-fuel production from countries such as the USA and Brazil. It is assumed that production from non OPEC bio-fuels will continue increasing.

However, according to a recent statement by Archer Daniels Midland, 20% of US ethanol production capacity has been shut down due to weak demand and poor margins. Consequently, US ethanol production will probably not increase until oil prices increase, marking an end to the unsustainably high US ethanol growth rate.

(…)Neither the EIA nor the IEA have stated that non OPEC crude oil, lease condensate and oil sands production has peaked in 2004. These government agencies will probably make official statements acknowledging this 2004 peak by the end of the year as key non OPEC producer Russia has stated that its production is in decline now.

Russian production could fall by 8% from 2008 to 2013. Russian crude and condensate production has fallen from 2007 at 9.44 mbd down to 9.36 mbd in 2008. Continuing decline in Russia means that non OPEC crude, condensate and oil sands has passed its peak in 2004.

(…) There are simply too many non OPEC countries with declining production which cannot be offset by increasing production of about 0.50 mbd in 2009 from non OPEC countries including Australia (0.04), Azerbaijan (0.02), Brazil (0.19), Canada (0.10), Kazakhstan (0.07), Sudan (0.04) and Vietnam (0.04). Production declines in 2009 from Mexico (0.24), Norway (0.21), UK (0.19) and Russia (0.26) are expected to be about 0.90 mbd which is greater than the 0.50 mbd increase.

Consequently, I am forecasting non OPEC-12 crude, condensate and oil sands production to be 41.0 mbd in 2009, 0.3 mbd down from 2008 and 1.1 mbd down from the 2004 peak of 42.1 mbd. The annual decline rate is expected to increase in 2010 because Australia, Brazil, Sudan and Vietnam are not expected to provide a production increase.


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3 thoughts on “Oil production peaked in non-OPEC countries

  • Kiashu

    What you don’t note is that OPEC production is overall going strong. So what this means in practical terms is that in the next decade more and more of the oil consumed in the world will come from OPEC, and less and less from outside it. Given that OPEC members themselves are consuming more and more of the oil they produce, there’ll be less for them to export.

    That means we in the West become Arabs’ bitches. Or maybe we try to make them our bitches, but Iraq has shown that doesn’t work too brilliantly.

    So it becomes diplomatically as well as climatically urgent to get off the oil. Nobody ever invaded a country for its windmills and trains.

  • Edouard Post author

    Agreed Kyle, but this post was on non-OPEC countries.

    I already wrote on how oil producing coutries are exporting less as they consume more of it.

    I also fully agree with you on how we have to work on energy efficiency and alternatives. I don’t get why governments are putting billions in automotive industry without asking them serious and tremendous efforts on efficiency.

    As I wrote last year: The USA are the Saudi Arabia of energy conservation
    http://www.elrst.com/2008/09/04/the-usa-are-the-saudi-arabia-of-energy-conservation/

    Of course, you may say that we shouldn’t even invest a dollar in them and instead retrain the workers… but well, it would be going a bit too far to me.